Northern Exposure: Study Commends Ontario’s Regulatory Model For High Channelization Rate

Each week, Canada Sports Betting recaps all the top sports betting and iGaming news in Canada and highlights events.

Our top stories this week

Event of the week

UFC 299 – Saturday, March 9

Mixed martial arts bettors have an exciting event to look forward to on Saturday night, when UFC 299 gets underway from Miami, Florida.

Sean O’Malley (-295 at NorthStar Bets) will defend his bantamweight title against Marlon Vera (+225) in the main event. These fighters last met at UFC 252 in August 2020, with Vera winning by first-round stoppage after crippling O’Malley’s left leg with a perfectly placed low kick. It’s the only loss suffered by O’Malley in his professional career (17-1-1).

The UFC 299 card won’t feature any Canadians this time around.

Check back with Canada Sports Betting on Friday for a full betting preview of the event!

Ontario’s gambling model shines in new t study

Earlier this week, the International Betting Integrity Association (IBIA, in conjunction with H2 Gambling Capital and the Canadian Gaming Association, released a study that analyzes the comparative impact of restrictive and liberal market regulation of sports-betting products on consumer protection, regulatory oversight, taxable revenue, market and sports integrity. The study draws on sports betting operator data, IBIA alert data, and H2’s own market data.

Titled “The Availability of Sports Betting Products: An Economic and Integrity Analysis,” the 70-page study’s central finding is that there is a strong correlation between the wide availability of sports betting products and the proportion of consumers who place bets with onshore regulated sports betting operators (known as the channelling rate), thereby reducing the risks of exposure to sports betting related fraud on unlicensed markets.

The report highlights Ontario’s regulatory model for sports wagering, particularly for its high rate of market channelization, strong and transparent regulatory framework and having the “most advanced model” of betting integrity monitoring.

Some of the data highlights include:

  • Ontario’s online sports betting channelization is expected to reach 92% in 2024. In contrast, the rest of Canada combined is forecast to have an onshore rate of around 11% and is expected to lose $2bn in taxable sports betting GGR offshore during 2024-28.
  • Ontario, which only opened its market in 2022, immediately overtook the German market’s onshore sports betting channelization rate and is expected to overtake Australia’s in 2023-24. Ontario is expected to have a 92% onshore rate in 2024. Whilst the well-established market in Great Britain, which similarly permits in-play betting, is forecast to have 97% onshore channelization.
  • Canada (excluding Ontario) is forecast to lose nearly $2bn in taxable sports betting GGR offshore during 2024-28. Using the same tax model as Ontario, that equates to around $395m in lost tax revenue. Quebec, and British Columbia combined for around 75% of that figure.
  • Alberta is reported to be considering adopting a licensing model similar to Ontario’s for online gambling regulation. If that model was introduced from the start of 2025, that could bring around $400m in taxable sports betting GGR back onshore during 2025-28 on current offshore market forecasts. However, a regulated commercial market would also be expected to grow the overall market and the true taxable GGR potential is therefore expected to be higher.

The CGA partnered with The Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming, The Netherlands Online Gaming Association, and Responsible Wagering Australia to sponsor the study.

Ontario is currently the only province to adopt a regulated online gambling model, but there is interest from the current Alberta government in creating a similar online gambling ecosystem by the end of this year. A coalition of online gambling operators and suppliers is advocating for a regulated market in Quebec, but the provincial government is heavily opposed to ending its monopoly on online gambling.

The complete study can be found below: